Black Friday Toy Deals Worth Waiting For
Track Target and Walmart early toy prices now so you can spot true cuts during Nov. 23-29 week.
Wait for Black Friday week for the steepest toy markdowns. Adobe forecasts toy discounts peaking at 29% on Nov. 27, a forecasted average that varies by retailer and lasts only while supplies last, according to Adobe's holiday forecast.
A doorbuster is a short, limited-quantity price cut. Use early November deals to list gift picks and note current prices. Then you can spot real cuts later.
Verification note: Program terms and availability can change. This page was checked against linked sources on November 05, 2026.
Should you buy now or wait?
Buy time-sensitive gifts when you see a price you can accept. Wait for late November for flexible picks. Stock risk rises as Black Friday week nears.
Make a short gift list with ages and backup picks. Note the current price for each toy. Set a personal cut-off for buying early.
What to track at Target this week?
Target says it will run Early Black Friday deals Nov. 5-7. It also plans a new Deal of the Day every day Nov.
1-Dec. 24 and new limited-time offers every weekend, in Target's holiday announcement. Check the daily deal each morning if you shop Target.
Flag weekend offers for bigger sets. Buy only if the price beats your noted baseline.
When will Walmart's toy cuts land?
Walmart says it will stage Black Friday deals Nov. 12-15 and Nov. 23-29.
The events span toys, tech, home and fashion, with Walmart+ members getting online early access, in Walmart's holiday events announcement. List two or three toy picks before Nov. 12.
Compare member early-access prices with your baseline. Leave room for a second chance during Nov. 23-29.
How to plan for LEGO and sellouts?
LEGO notes Insiders Weekend Nov. 21-22 for members. It then plans Black Friday-Cyber Monday sales Nov.
27-30 with member-exclusive deals, on LEGO's Insiders Weekend page. Join the free membership before Nov. 21 if you want member deals.
Decide which sets are must-haves now.
- Check exclusion notes beside each set.
- Note gift-with-purchase limits and stock notes.
- Buy must-have picks early; wait only for flexible extras.